The Colorado Rockies drew the third pick in the Draft Lottery today, giving them their best draft pick in 2024 since they took Brendan Rodgers with that same third pick in 2015 (they also picked third in the 2013 draft and netted RHP Jon Gray).
While disappointing to miss out on the first pick when the Rockies had the highest chance (18.3%) of the top pick in the lottery, they did get a better pick than either the A’s (fourth) and Royals (sixth) who shared the same odds. The Guardians will pick first despite having just a 2% chance to do so, and the Reds beat even greater odds (.9%) to pick second.
Now that the pick order is known, just how much difference does it make to pick third as opposed to first or second? The results may surprise you, as the third pick in the draft has actually outperformed the first over the past decade. Furthermore, only the third pick over the last years has made it to the major leagues (excluding of course the three most recent). The first pick looks especially bad for the Astros, who gained nothing from their #1 picks in ’13 and ’14 (Appel finally made it to the majors with the Phillies in ’22).
The table below shows each of the top 3 picks in the last decade, along with their career WAR to date.
| Year | 1st Pick (WAR to date) | 2nd Pick (WAR to date) | 3rd Pick (WAR to date) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Paul Skenes, Pirates, P (-) | Dylan Crews, Nationals, OF (-) | Max Clark, Tigers, OF (-) |
| 2022 | Jackson Holliday, Orioles, SS (-) | Druw Jones, DBacks, OF (-) | Kumar Rocker, Rangers, P (-) |
| 2021 | Henry Davis, Pirates, C (-1.4) | Jack Leiter, Rangers, P (-) | Jackson Jobe, Tigers, P (-) |
| 2020 | Spencer Torkelson, Tigers, 3B (-0.4) | Heston Kjerstad, Orioles, OF (0.0) | Max Meyer, Marlins, P (0.1) |
| 2019 | Adley Rutschman, Orioles, C (9.6) | Bobby Witt Jr., Royals, SS (5.3) | Andrew Vaughn, White Sox, 1B (0.9) |
| 2018 | Casey Mize, Tigers, RHP (2.8) | Joey Bart, Giants, C (0.7) | Alec Bohm, Phillies, 3B (0.8) |
| 2017 | Royce Lewis, Twins, SS (2.8) | Hunter Greene, Reds, RHP (3.1) | MacKenzie Gore, Padres, LHP (2.3) |
| 2016 | Mickey Moniak, Phillies, OF (0.8) | Nick Senzel, Reds, 3B (-1.8) | Ian Anderson, Braves, RHP (3.6) |
| 2015 | Dansby Swanson, DBacks, SS (19.5) | Alex Bregman, Astros, SS (35.4) | Brendan Rodgers, Rockies, SS (4.8) |
| 2014 | Brady Aiken, Astros, LHP (-) | Tyler Kolek, Marlins, RHP (-) | Carlos Rodon, White Sox, LHP (15.8) |
| 2013 | Mark Appel, Astros, RHP (0.3) | Kris Bryant, Cubs, 3B (28.2) | Jon Gray, Rockies, RHP (13.6) |
| WAR Totals | 34 | 70.9 | 41.7 |
If you go back further, there are some big prizes with the third pick, including third basemen Manny Machado (54.9 career WAR), Evan Longoria (58.6 career WAR), and Troy Glaus (38.1 career WAR). Maybe it’s in the Rockies’ best interest to pick a talent for the hot corner?
The bottom line is that, though the top amateur baseball talent will usually be available only in the first few picks, it can be a crap shoot even then as to which athlete to take in the top three. History has shown a team is as likely to hit gold with the third pick as the first. The Rockies will certainly take their third pick with a smile, and could end up with a cornerstone player in the not-too-distant future.
Punk Rockies 
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